The report from the State Meteorological Agency to the judge of the Court of Instruction number 3 of Catarroja (Valencia), who is handling the management of the dana, states that 15 bulletins were issued between the 28th and 29th of October, and on that last day, there were 24 calls related to the episode, between 6:30 and 22:02, mainly to Civil Protection.
Of the last three, as stated in the document, two were to Civil Protection, at 18:09 and 18:10, to report a two-hour extension of the red alert on the north coast of Valencia due to the persistence of the storm (in the north inland and south coast it ended at 18:00), but the calls were not answered, and there was no incoming call from that organization. The 22:02 call was from the firefighters of Castellón to inquire about the forecast in that province.
The report, reported by El País and consulted by Europa Press, states that on the day of the dana, the highest precipitation occurred in the province of Valencia, with accumulations between 200 and 300 liters per square meter in a wide area and over 700 l/m2 in Turís, which recorded «extraordinarily high» intensities. In this case, the accumulations in one, six, and 12 hours set new national records for the Aemet station network.
The first call on the 29th was made at 6:30 am from the National Forecast Center of Aemet to Civil Protection to report an advance warning. From there, the calls were made by the Prediction and Surveillance Group East of Aemet to Civil Protection of the Valencian Government. The first call at 7:31 was to report the correct update to red in the south coast of Valencia.
The next call at 7:36 was to report a specific error and to reiterate that the red alert was in the south coast (not the north inland). At 7:54, a call was made, but while the predictor could hear Civil Protection, they could not hear the predictor, which happened many times during the morning, as indicated in the report, which states that after a few seconds, they hung up saying that there were users waiting to be attended to.
At that time, in another call, the Prediction and Surveillance Group East of Aemet called again to report the high orange level on the north coast, both in hourly intensity and accumulation in 12 hours, and discussed the situation of incidents on roads near Alzira.
At 9:43 is when the red alert was communicated for the inland and north coast, scheduled until 18:00, with maximum accumulation expected in the north inland of Valencia. By mid-morning, several calls were made in which conversations were not heard, and at 11:54 another call was made to update the situation.
At that time, the forecast given was that despite the rains in the area, the highest intensities and accumulations were expected further south, forming around the lower Ribera, northwestward; the forecast was for rain to continue and road closures on the A3 near Utiel. Also, maximum accumulations in models predicted for the afternoon in the north inland, which towards the night or early morning could shift from southeast to northwest towards southern Aragon and Albacete.
In the sequence, it is also included that at 16:23 a call was made to Civil Protection to report that the red alert on the south coast of Valencia was going to be raised again until 18:00, and about the formation of a very slow-moving storm located between both coasts. At that time, it was reported that this storm was causing precipitation of more than 100 l/m2 in just one hour and that there were reports of a tornado forming in Alginet.
From their counterparts, they inquired about the forecast for the Utiel-Requena area, as they were receiving calls from there but could not access for rescue due to flooding.
At 18:09, two calls were made to Civil Protection of Valencia, to two different numbers, to report a two-hour extension of the red alert on the north coast of Valencia due to the persistence of the storm «but the calls were not answered.» Afterwards, no return call was received.
MEETINGS
The report also includes the two meetings held by Aemet on that day: one at 9:30 am with the Government Delegation and the Cecopi, from which an email with the invitation was received at 4:18 pm. The representative of the state agency connected at 5:00 pm and had several interventions: at 5:40 pm, to comment that it was raining intensely in the west of the metropolitan area of Valencia.
A few minutes later, a second intervention was made, commenting that the area of torrential rain was between Calicanto, Turís, Godelleta, and Chiva. At that time, there was a pause in the Cecopi, and there was no further intervention «until just before 7:40 pm». There, it was mentioned that it was still raining and stormy in areas «where it had been happening for hours,» although the most intense precipitation had shifted further inland and north and would continue in the coming hours until early morning.
As detailed in the report, «at that time, they were discussing the sending of an Es Alert message, the content of the message, and the areas to which it would be sent.» The Aemet representative commented that he did not see «much sense» in sectorizing confinements, which was one of the possibilities they were considering, or in sectorizing the sending of messages, and that the only area of the province left out was «the south, Safor, and Vall d’Albaida.»
After two more pauses in the meeting, around 9:55 pm, there was a new intervention when torrential rains also affected the middle basin of the Turia. Around 10:00 pm, there was another pause in the meeting, which resumed 40 minutes later, and it was reported that the storm system was advancing northward.
The forecast was that overnight it would continue to advance northward, it was possible that it would stop affecting the Valencian Community, but it would still affect Teruel, so the Turia would continue to grow due to the rains at the source. The Cecopi ended at 10:50 pm.
PREDICTIONS SINCE OCTOBER 20
The first prediction included in the report is the general one for Spain on October 20, where there was already talk, with «high uncertainty,» of the formation of a dana for the days of the 27th, 28th, and 29th of October. National bulletins were issued on the 22nd and 23rd, mentioning the probability of locally heavy rainfall in points along the Mediterranean coast, and on the 24th, it was specified, more concretely, the areas that would be most affected: the Mediterranean area, especially in the Levante.
On Friday the 25th, the first specific information note on the rainfall episode was issued, pointing to the 29th as the most likely day to experience strong or very strong showers and storms, locally persistent; on the 26th, the information was updated, as was on the 27th, which spoke of a «peak day» for that day and already alluded to the probability of amounts exceeding 150 l/m2 in 24 hours in the Valencian Community.
On Monday the 28th, the special alert was renewed, referring to the intensity and persistence of the rainfall and the probability that locally 120-150 l/m2 could be exceeded in 12-24 hours. On Tuesday the 29th, the alert was repeated, warning that locally 150-180 l/m2 could be exceeded in 12-24 hours.
The report includes the eleven bulletins of the 29th: between 6:30 am and 9:27 pm with the update of the alerts. At 9:41 am, they were raised to red, and at 5:49 pm, they were extended until 8:00 pm.